The re-election of President Trump has proven that he was not an unfortunate aberration – and we now need to quickly adapt to a world in which the US is neither a worthy or reliable partner or ally to Australia or the “rest of the free world”. The problem is not just Trump, it’s the fact that the US political process is so unbalanced that he actually exists and thrives.
Moving away from the US both in terms of military alliances and economics poses some clear risks, perhaps even more than the EU should NATO effectively cease to exist – for all its “management issues” the EU is a very significant economic entity which should be able to deal with any exigent threat, including Russia. However, as well as giving rise a broad range of insecurities and challenges it poses some economic opportunities as well – but we need breathing space.
Australia’s population size and geographic position makes defence outside a US umbrella significantly more difficult but this is an issue we need to address urgently. Trump’s transactional nature, his problem with the concept of loyalty and the fact that many of the expensive weapons sold to Australia – be they missiles or advanced aircraft – can probably be “remotely bricked” by Washington – require an urgent review of our stand alone capability. A “disappointing answer” is expected, but that means the earlier we seek to plan according – perhaps in concert with regional and other friends such as New Zealand, Japan, Korea, Canada and the EU – the better.
AUKUS is dead and in any event was an expensive “potential” long term solution to a short to medium term issue – the money is better spent elsewhere.
